Divided We Stand!

The volatile and uncertain situation in the Middle East/ Gulf Region continues despite Pakistan's hectic ‘Walk on a Tightrope’. The global petroleum prices also keep pulsating with hope and despair in sync with POTUS Trump’s all too frequent mercurial statements; and so does the global markets and overall disturbed world economy. The violations of ceasefire from both US/ Israel and Iran are happening despite tall promises related to a probable phased programme to cease hostilities with each side claiming victory and hiding losses. As stated months ago, Iran's nuclear potential/ missile capabilities and opening of the Strait of Hormuz with pre-war status remain the main sticking points.

The declared war aims by US/ Israel included elimination of Iran’s top clergy/ IRGC leadership, destruction of Iran’s nuclear potential/ missile capabilities and the regime change with moderates replacing the hardliners in Iran. The US claims victory in all stated aims and objectives to quite an extent if not one hundred percent; whereas Israel remains skeptical about Iran’s nuclear potential to rise again from the claimed semi dead— which   in addition to Israel’s expansionism in Palestine and Lebanon  are acting as spoiling efforts in the peace making efforts by Pakistan and by some others though not as enthusiast, happily watching their foes getting bloody noses. The US/ Israel seem to have underestimated Iran’s retaliatory military capabilities especially with regards to closure of the Strait of Hormuz (potentially Bab-al-Mandeb too) with its political & economic backlash and the poor impact on the NATO Alliance; besides, effective targeting of American bases and other footprints in the Gulf Region along with petro-chemical industries. 

War is a bloody and deadly business; and therefore, human and military losses are acceptable as long as the stated aims and objectives are achieved. While the US claims more than partial victory, Iran is equally justified to stand tall and make similar claims having sent chills down the American and Israeli spines, their egos badly bruised, NATO Alliance badly shaken, war losses and military spending by US/ Israel becoming unbearable. As for the Gulf States, Arabs’ confidence and reliance on American security umbrella stands shattered, their military and economic losses have exposed their vulnerabilities and consequent split in the OPEC/ GCC with emergence of more mini-blocs. Therefore, as for the Gulf States, the reverse of “United we stand, divided we fall” becomes a stark reality, with yet another version “Divided we stand”. How long will they be able to survive as the flow of trillions of dollars to USA/ allies and sycophancy has not been able to save their skins; and the Arab rulers as well as general masses are thoroughly disappointed and agitated.

While USA/ Israel and Iran are deftly trying for one-up in the direct & indirect communications for a sustainable peace plan, a very few can fathom the ‘method in the madness’ by the belligerents. Especially, in Trump’s ‘blowing hot & cold’ statements. American/ Israeli self imposed restraint to use weapons of mass destruction against Iran despite Iran hurting their strategic assets and above all undermining their global prestige and jingoism has been adroitly exploited by Iran; knowing American/ Israeli compulsion to keep Iran’s political, economic and conventional capabilities intact in order to keep the historic Muslim sectarian division intact as well as for keeping the Sunni Arab rulers/ States aligned and subservient to the American and allies’ interests. 

As a result, Iran despite some serious losses stands more united, stronger and taller in the region; whereas Arabs seem more divided and vulnerable. Their reconciliatory efforts with Israel and ‘Abraham Accords’ stands challenged and uncertain. Their strategic tilt towards India especially by the UAE and free hand given to India to operate against Pakistan from all directions including Afghanistan, to me seems a part of ‘method in the madness’. The US’ secretary of State Rubio's recent visit to placate India is just a pointer; after all ‘QUAD alliance’ and ‘US’ Asia Pacific Rebalancing Policy’ and the primacy granted to India is not off the cards. Russia and China are obviously conscious of the Great Game being played in their strategic sphere of influence with due care and with full comprehension; rather than cursory glance to consider it a ‘strategic stalemate’ between US/ Israel and Iran.

Pakistan’s nudged diplomatic initiative to ‘lead a horse to water’ by ‘walking on a tight rope’ with respect to maintaining a fine balance in her relations with China, Russia, Gulf States and neighbouring Iran notwithstanding; one thing stands clear like a bright Sun—only a strong military capability, internal political/ economic stability and trustworthy military and economic alliance (e.g. SCO, CSTO) can ensure safety, security and freedom of a State in the contemporary world(a lesson from World history too). Pakistan's ‘swift retort’ (February 27, 2019) repeated during May 2025 against ‘Indian ephemeral blitz’ is a case in point. 

It goes without saying that unlike past, Pakistani leadership should focus less on gaining domestic political mileage from the current intermediary role, and assert more on translating the enhanced diplomatic stature into economic dividends coming to the State as well as people of Pakistan, who are enduring economic hardships due to crippling inflation mainly due to mounting energy prices. The operationalisation of the Iran-Pakistan oil/gas pipeline project should be a good start point; besides meaningful security agreements with the Gulf States.