Lead a Horse to Water

This piece stems from April 9, 2026 published op-ed “Walk on a Tight Rope”; with reference to Pakistan’s untiring and tricky efforts to bring around ceasefire and facilitate the warring sides to sit around a table in an enabled environment to figure out lasting peace in the Middle East. Nevertheless, the role of ‘Leading a horse to the water’ has proved to be as challenging as weighing up frogs on an open scale. The flood of novice analysts occupying countless TV screens and social  media platforms with their terse commentary on the ongoing events also remind of ‘frogs at the monsoon pond’.

So far, the hopes of a second round of talks between Iran and the US teams are facing ‘on again, off gain’ as expected. POTUS Trumps’ frequent and provocative and confusing statements and semi closure of the Gulf for the Iranian ships are as unhelpful as Iran’s blockade of the Strait of Hormuz and persistence to cling to the Uranium enrichment / nuclear programme; rest are details. Israel's spoiler’s role hardly needs a mention with her continued atrocities in Gaza/ Palestine and Lebanon with firm resolve not to allow Iran to become a nuclear military power or possess threatening missiles and drones capabilities. Although, countries involved in the conflict are war-weary; yet each one is trying to show a brave face with a view to look strong on the table for better bargains. The economic, military and on top of it, the political cost is equally unbearable  though, yet Iran has shown better resilience so far.Nevertheless, one can hope that with a few more rounds of diplomatic engagements in Pakistan, an amicable and mutually agreeable peace agreement may get inked and signed by the senior American and Iranian leadership.

Gulf/ Arab States’ badly hurt image/ego, trust in American security umbrella and inter-state differences and undue grudges and above all historic Arabs versus Ajami (non-Arabs) and Shia versus Sunni fault-lines are other complicating problems for peace making efforts by Pakistan. Ironically, despite Pakistan enviable stature as the only credible Nuclear Capable Muslim State with formidable and battle hardened Armed Forces, the economic and internal political fronts remain unenviable; which, obviously cast a shadow on the peace making efforts with due economic dividends coming in to serve the State and the People of Pakistan. On the contrary, the extreme high petroleum prices and the consequent inflation has made the lives of people of Pakistan worse than the countries actually involved in the conflict. The muti-front and unrelenting war unleashed against Pakistan by India and Afghanistan; besides, the spoiling efforts launched by India and Israel through massive disinformation warfare in order to undermine Pakistan’s facilitation role needs to be countered forcefully and both Iran and USA must be made aware of the same. 

May it also be underscored that no  narratives, whether churned out by the overzealous story tellers in the electronic media or by the hired and pampered clergy, can comfort the hungry masses striving for the basics of life. The Government of Pakistan must immediately reduce the fuel prices to the pre-conflict rates and curb the unbearable inflation followed by restoring political stability through free and fair elections. Nothing speaks louder than the truth, bravery and sincerity. The supreme sacrifices rendered by the defenders of Pakistan especially the Martyrs is the proudest heritage as well as guarantor of national security and survival. A winning horse doesn’t need advocates and propagandists!

So far Pakistan has done well to keep most of the frogs on the scale. On the external fronts, regular engagement of Arab/ Gulf states, Turkiye, Egypt, CARS, Russia and above all time tested and most reliable friend China are commendable. But never to forget that each warring state as well as involved state is pursuing her national interests; and nothing is better than the economic interest--that is where Pakistan needs to focus with regards to openly seeking help from USA and the Gulf states to get rid of IMF loans. Pakistan needs to remember that such facilitation roles have been played in the past too; but forgotten quickly.Seeking lifting of ban on Iran-Pakistan oil/gas pipeline should be the second most important Pakistani objective to be sought from the USA before the US Delegation leaves Pakistan and before the ink on the Iran-US Peace Agreement dries out. As regards Gulf States, it is time to talk professionally in economic facts & figures; the provision of security to the engaged Gulf States must translate into cash in billions rather than free Hajj/ Umrah to the elite or embarrassing deferred payment oil/gas or petty bank deposits.

Looking beyond tomorrow like China, Pakistan’s macro decision makers must remain cognizant of the greater strategic objectives that the big three Powers have in the Asia-Pacific Region. As the dust settles, the US’ Asia-Pacific  Re-balancing Policy and QUAD efforts shall resurface especially with the splintering status of NATO. Pakistan’s long term interests will obviously be served in maintaining a fine balance in her foreign policy and with a firm and steadfast role in the SCO and CSTO. Long live Pakistan!