Re-evolving Middle East : Conclusions(Part-5)

In the last four columns published in a series, a reappraisal of historical context leading to the current tumultuous situation the ME was undertaken. The purpose was to draw relevant lessons for Global Peace in general and for the Muslim World in particular. Apropos, it is an embarrassing admission that since the dissolution of Ottoman Khilafat, the ME along with other Muslim courtiers all over the globe have remained subjected to predatory political, economic, military and intelligence exploitation by the American led Western economic and security architecture. Afghanistan, parts of Pakistan, Bangladesh, Turkiye, Kuwait, Iran, Iraq, Libya, Syria, Yemen, Sudan, Egypt, Tunisia, Algeria, Morocco, Niger, Nigeria, Somalia, occupied IIOK(Kashmir) and above all Palestine/ Gaza have all experienced their respective worst ignominy and victimization; some repeatedly since 1920. Not to forget the plight of Rohingya in Myanmar and Muslims in IIOK & in India.

Needless to say that enemies of Islam will never cease to hollow out and undermine Muslims all over the world in every possible way as a continuation of ancient brutal ‘Wars of Religions and Civilizations’. However, the Global Muslim community(Ummah) divided and exposed on multiple fault-lines, especially due to the interstate and intrastate sectarian split is to be blamed more for being on the anvil under the common foes’ hammer. While OIC, AL, OPEC and all economically & militarily strong Muslim countries have remained inert bystanders, what good then one could expect from UNO or ICJ.

Following important conclusions & lessons can be drawn from the above study for a respectable & sovereign survival, stability and progress of Muslim/ OIC member countries:

* The Revolving Door to the ME and the ongoing Israel-US joint efforts supported by the old colonial actors to eliminate Palestinian from Gaza and subsequently from the West Bank regions and their envisaged relocation in other Arab countries with the realization of Zionist’s dream of Greater Israel is nor more a fiction but a reality. 

* The unabated genocide of Palestinians and annexation of Palestinian, Syrian, Egyptian, Lebanese  and Jordanian lands and resources by Israel with total support from the USA/allies  and the historical and inherent but controversial push and pull strategies adopted by the Arab States, Iran and Turkiye fall in place with the above stated background understood; sadly, respective National Interests supersede all human, moral and collective religious obligations.

* The civil war in Yemen is widely regarded as part of the Iran-Saudi proxy conflict. Iran formed an anti-Israel "Axis of Resistance" with Hamas, Hezbollah, Syria, and Yemeni Houthis. Iran and Israel have launched sporadic Air Force, missile and drones’ strikes at each other without any significant damage to either of them. Bravely or unwisely, the Houthis attacked shipping in the Red Sea, leading to a U.S.-led military response; which was as imprudent as was Hamas attack on Israel on 7 October 2023(keeping in view the joint American-Israel-British joint retaliation capabilities that has resulted in the greatest genocide of Palestinian Muslims and complete destruction of Gaza region).

* As for Syria, the fall of the Assad regime was driven by a combination of internal and external factors that reached a critical point towards the end of 2024. Nevertheless, the regime demonstrated remarkable resilience, though the worsening economic and social crisis heightened the risks of regime change. Key external factors included Israel’s desire to capitalize on developments in Gaza and Lebanon to minimize Iran’s influence in Syria, as well as the situation of the Russian Federation, which, being engaged in the conflict in Ukraine, was unwilling to intensify its military support for Bashar al-Assad, thereby accepting his departure within a broader geopolitical context.

* Alongside foreign military presences—Russia and Iran being crucial in securing strategic areas in Syria, the Asad regime also established local paramilitary formations such as the Shabiha (“ghosts”), primarily composed of Alawite minorities who maintained control, especially along the coast, where their population was significant. To survive, the regime employed all available means, from airstrikes using fragmentation bombs to chemical weapons. Prisons became overcrowded with opposition members detained for the slightest act of defiance. 

* From a demographic perspective, the war in Syria was catastrophic, causing over 500,000 deaths, more than 6 million external refugees, and around 4 million internally displaced persons. Material destruction is difficult to estimate, with figures reaching approximately $300 billion. Between 2011 and 2023, the Syrian economy shrank by 85%. The regime survived largely due to Iranian support, estimated at $2-6 billion annually.

* Another financial lifeline for Syria was the production of ‘Captagon’, an illicit drug known as the “jihad drug,” generating over $10 billion for the Assad regime. In late November 2024, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) – Organization for the Liberation of the Levant, which controlled Syria’s northwestern Idlib region, launched an offensive against key strategic points, capturing Aleppo within days, followed by Hama, Homs, and finally Damascus. 

* Syria’s situation remains highly complex and open to various possibilities. The new government will have to tackle a deepening economic and social crisis while preventing a descent into factional conflict, reminiscent of  Lebanon’s historical turmoil. Syria’s developments will shape new regional and global power balances, potentially becoming the new litmus test for Middle Eastern and even global geopolitics.

* It can be fairly concluded that the regime change in Syria was linked to the changes underway in the Washington Administration, in order to align with the new intentions of the Trump administration in the Middle East, with Syria potentially playing an important role in the security architecture envisioned by the new American administration for the region. From the developments in the ME and especially from the Syrian debacle, there are quite a few similarities and relevant lessons for Pakistan, which needs a comprehensive and serious analysis.

* In pursuit of lingering strategic interests, for expansion of the strategic sphere of influence and for control of precious natural resource and check-mate China and Russia, the USA is once again going to shift focus to EURASIA with eyes on potential nuclear Iran, Nuclear Pakistan and historic quarry & launchpad Afghanistan (with re-emergence of IS-K and taking back American left behind military assets as an excuse); and with the same old unenviable role envisaged for Pakistan without any change in the darker side of the Great Game. Therefore, the people in the helm of affairs in Pakistan will have to tread very cautiously on all fronts including economic ( loans, grants, any agreements on hydrocarbons and precious rare earth metals excavations) and avoid any military cooperation that may embroil Pakistan into greater complications.

* It goes without saying that Pakistan is already confronted with multiple challenges like resurgence of worst terrorism, poor law and order situation, anaemic economy, polemic judicial system, and lame-duck political system; hence, it can not afford to fall prey to the same old ominous role with unaffordable fallout. Therefore, all national decisions need to be analyzed beforehand keeping in view the prevailing domestic and regional developments as well as the strategic decisions taken in the last five decades.

* The proverbial truth of “ United we stand, divided we fall” stands vindicated from the predicament of Muslims since the disintegration of Ottoman Khilafat.

*  Beside other relatively minor differences among the Muslim societies and states, the  historical politico-economic tussle transformed as ideological & sectarian split as evidenced from the ‘KSA led Sunni block’ and ‘Iran led Shia block’ has actually been exploited to the hilt by the enemies of Islam. Hence, the criticality & inevitability  of reconciliation between KSA and Iran at the OIC level or at any other bilateral or multilateral forums.  

* Without any further delay, the OIC needs to create a strong Military Alliance like NATO to shield against any aggression (with commonality of interests with SCO Security block and CSTO) in which Pakistan can play the lead role ; and an effective Global Islamic Economic Structure (like EU, WB, WTO, IMF, ADB and other IFIs).

*  For the Muslims, the inefficacy of UNO/ICJ has been not much different than the defunct League of Nations. With Military and economic teeth grown and matured, the OIC should then set on to acquire the status akin to UNO and all its organs as well as ICJ.