The Sum of all Fears

This piece is inspired by a film named ‘‘The Sum of All Fears”, which is a 2002 American spy thriller film, based on Tom Clancy's 1991 novel of the same name. In the film, an Austrian Neo-Nazi, desiring to establish a European fascist superstate, attempts to trigger a nuclear war between the United States and Russia by setting off a nuclear device in Baltimore, simultaneously with a rogue Russian officer launching an attack on an American aircraft carrier. With the world on a brink of nuclear war as a result of these events, a CIA analyst races against time to find a way to prevent an all out nuclear war. Since Cuban Missile Crisis both USA and Russian learned it well that they don’t have to directly come to blows but use other countries to fight in pursuance of their respective interests under crafted false narratives; but there will always be a risk that a smaller power or even some rogue elements applying the same clever formulae in reverse on the bigger Nuclear States as depicted in the subject movie.  

Incidentally I watched this film after 23 years of its release but found its plot even more valid in the current regional and international security and geopolitical environment. I was reminded of my columns published on 11 May 2025 titled “Back From the Brink” , which were written in the background of Indo-Israel joint misadventure against Pakistan on May 7, that ended as most embarrassing “Ephemeral Blitz” for India (published on May 18, 2025) due to the most astounding professional blow delivered by the Pakistan armed forces. It goes without saying that had Pakistan with Nuclear Deterrence in Place not achieved convincing supremacy in full spectrum military response in just 48 hours long intense military conflict, with Israel directly supporting India with reported physical presence and with latest drones, neither the approving supporters of this misadventure would have bothered to broker ceasefire, nor India would have accepted it with Pakistan’s ascendancy in place. By the Grace of Almighty Allah, the unprovoked military misadventure launched by Indian with open support from Israel (and her creators and keepers), both India and Pakistan walked back from the brink of a nuclear exchange and a war of complete obliteration. 

Pakistan becoming the first Muslim country as a formidable Nuclear Armed State is nothing less than a miracle despite West’s best efforts to never let any Muslim country to possess a nuclear weapon. As written earlier in other columns, many Muslim leaders got ousted from power as a result of regime change operations and even physically eliminated on suspicions of pursuing nuclear ambitions. Although, the Western Alliance wishes to keep Iran as a country with reasonable conventional military capability to keep the Sunni Arab states in the fold; yet, Iran becoming possessor of a nuclear weapon is unacceptable due the threat posed to Israel and other Western interests.

Wars have been fought since time immemorial and will remain so till eternity. The survival of the fittest will remain prevalent as bigger fish will never cease to eat the smaller. For keeping Western hegemony intact, the economic and security architecture created in the backdrop of WW-II has been maintained so far by keeping Muslim States militarily weaker and non-nuclear minus Pakistan. However, emerging China as a main global rival and reemerging Russia malevolently involved in a war against Ukraine are the new realities challenging USA led Western Economic and Military ascendancy with fissures are already  emerging especially in the EU countries.

One can only hope and pray that better sense will prevail in India, as well as among her instigating powers, to reconsider the pros and cons of erroneously betting on a mule and reinforcing a failure—the backlash of which is prone to be beyond imagination. The Iran-Israel conflict has further frustrated the Israeli hawks and their Western sponsors, led by the USA, with heavy political and economic cost. While skeptics and conspiracy-mongers will continue to spread rumours and unfounded narratives, the gallant Pakistan Armed Forces will, Insha’Allah, continue to sharpen their teeth without any let-up in military preparations. Neither complacency nor arrogance has any place amongst the Armed Forces—nor any space for falling prey to the multiple deceptive traps laid around  “By Other Means”(published on 25 June 2025). Thus, any major ceasefire violation or  another misadventure is bound to be fiercely retaliated.

The prudence demands that India and her well-known allies should re-calibrate their political and military thinking and find ways and means to live and let Pakistan and other neighbours live in peace—rather than attempting in vain to cut Pakistan’s jugular vein i.e., IIOJ&K, or violate the Indus Waters Treaty to cause water, energy, agricultural, industrial, and social crises in Pakistan. Needless to say, when a nation’s very existence is at stake, mutual assured destruction (MAD) becomes imperative—as just demonstrated by Pakistan on the nights of 8/9 and 9/10 May 2025. Thus, POTUS Trump's effort to immediately bring the ceasefire into effect must be seen in the context of “The Sum of all Fears”.