Burning Frontiers

This piece stems from my last column “When Pigs Fly” published on October 25, 2025. After hosting thankless and ever exploiting Afghans for over 40 years at a very heavy political, economic, security, socio-psychological cost, and their ever increasing shifting sands like hired guns role inside and outside Pakistan, it was concluded, “With Chinese-like firmness, Pakistan’s leadership needs to bury the useless clichés of Muslim brotherhood, friendship, and neighbourhood, and speak purely in terms of national interest — which is the comprehensive security and well-being of the Pakistani people. One should expect loyalty and friendship from Afghan rulers only when pigs fly!”. The tumultuous history of Afghanistan has seldom seen peace for a host of internal and external reasons and modern Afghanistan has remained a battlefield for the great powers. Nevertheless, whenever the Great Game gave a respite, Afghans’ internal power play always ensued due to sub-nationalist, ethnic, sectarian, inter- and intra-tribal feuds. Since 1947, the main fallout, whether because of foreign aggression or internal strife, has been endured by Pakistan due to porous borders, misplaced ethnic affinity, misuse by religious or sectarian cults, and the financial interests of powerful mafias running a parallel economy by exploiting the most controversial Afghan Transit Trade — besides indulging in the smuggling of drugs, weapons, and even humans. With due deference to the brave and hardy common people of Afghanistan, the Afghan gladiators’ propensity to be readily available as hired guns to the highest bidder has mostly kept the tribal society in a state of flux.

This has finally led to the ongoing large-scale open confrontation between Pakistan and Afghanistan, only hours after Indian PM Modi’s visit to Israel. And then within 48 hours of that, again Israel and USA jointly strike Iran on night 27/28 February 2026  (after the June 2025 attack) to take down Iran’s leadership and to destroy her naval and nuclear/ missile potential. Obviously, these events are not inadvertent but a well synchronized combination of covert and overt malicious manoeuvre crafted by the US, Israel and India along with other allies. No to forget that all this is happening on the heels of signing of Trump’s most controversial “Board of Peace” for Gaza/ Palestine; thumb nosing the signatories!

  Iran’s retaliatory strikes on American bases particularly in the Middle East i.e. Qatar, UAE, Bahrain, Iraq, Kuwait and other Arab states and closure of the Strait of Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb, which are critical global maritime choke-points, controlling the flow of 20% of global oil (Hormuz) and vital Red Sea shipping (Bab el-Mandeb); hence, bound to create global economic and security tremors. How China, Russia and other members of the UN Security Council will react and do something positive remains the moot point.

Coming back to Pakistan-Afghanistan current escalations though with great mismatch in conventional military capabilities, and likely outcome may ultimately see the much sought after Taliban regime change (as also the case for Iran). The consequent shifting of strategic poles and “Axis of Resistance” totally smashed and ominous interference in the sphere of influence of other big powers like China and Russia is virtually pushing the world towards greater risks of direct confrontation among Nuclear Powers. The shifting of loyalties by the ungracious Taliban leadership and playing as an Indian and Israeli proxy against Pakistan has left Pakistan with no other option but finally taking them down as the wounds inflicted by the ungrateful Afghan hired guns on Pakistan’s internal and external fronts have become unbearable. In the overall picture, the entrapped signatories of “Board of Peace” are now facing Iran’s military counter strikes; thus unlikely to play any reconciliatory roles as per their respective concerns, interests and stakes in Afghanistan. Only three years ago , Pakistan was in the lead to seek legitimacy and recognition for the Taliban regime; and now, the same thankless Afghan Taliban have turned their guns against their host Pakistan for the last four decades. Not to forget that the Indian “Ephemeral Blitz” during May 2025 happened in a similar regional security situation. At present, Pakistan’s three external fronts remain exposed to a host of threats with the internal front exposed too on many counts. The precarious regional as well as disruptive internal security situation in Pakistan demands immediate political reconciliation and strong internal front. The multi-dimensional threats faced by Pakistan have to be fought back as a whole Nation led by their truly elected and popular political leaders rather than by controversial representatives. Only true and visionary political leadership can steer the national ship out of the troubled waters. Otherwise, the USA is far quicker in turning their guns towards friends than even Afghans; that has been the nature of Pakistan-US relations in the last seven decades.

While the closest global competitor, China, has so far shown strategic patience and preferred to respond from the BRICS forum, nevertheless, like the perpetrators of World War I and World War II, whether Trump’s recklessness will finally lead to the doomsday of World War III, remains a matter of “Not if, but When”. For Pakistan, staying in the crease and in the right corner with strategic foresight and internal/external peace is an unavoidable exigency.