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Writer's pictureSaleem Qamar Butt

Kashmir in Quandary


This piece is a sequel to my earlier published op-Ed titled “Wall of BRICS” where I had stated that “the overall, economic imperatives and geopolitical developments seem intertwined to shape events in favour of a cooling-off period between India and China”. Although both Chinese and Indian analysts carefully opine that the recent agreement and implementation of the China-India border patrol protocol will indeed help to ease tensions along the border and improve bilateral relations; yet based on the various reasons  associated with the strategic contest in Asia Pacific, the extent of this improvement may remain limited, and its duration may not be long-lasting. For Chinese companies and capital, there may be a window of opportunity in the Indian market. However, for trade and economic projects that require long-term commitment and significant investment, the two sides will still need to tread cautiously. Nevertheless, both major regional contestants have found it mutually useful to put the disputes on the side burner  for the time-being, and went ahead with pursuing their respective economic & trade interests.

Following the partition of British India in 1947, Jammu and Kashmir, a princely state with a Muslim majority but ruled by a Hindu monarch, became a point of contention between the newly formed India and Pakistan. This led to the first Indo-Pak war. As the conflict escalated, India brought the matter to the United Nations, which in 1948 called for a ceasefire and the withdrawal of forces from the region. The United Nations Security Council (UNSC) passed resolutions stipulating that the future of Kashmir would be determined by a plebiscite in which the people of the region would pick out joining India or Pakistan. This plebiscite, however, has never taken place, leaving the status of Kashmir unresolved. For the people of Kashmir, it has remained a consistent political and armed struggle against Indian military occupation, atrocities and human rights abuses. For India and Pakistan, it has been the core issue for fighting three wars, many border military skirmishes, and a constant state of ‘No War No Peace’ and hostility that impacts all aspects of their bilateral relations; only underscoring that any war between the two nuclear armed country can not bring solution to Kashmir conundrum. The continued denial of this right under UN Resolutions and international law has exacerbated the grievances of the Kashmiri population, leading to widespread disillusionment; that has kept people in occupied Kashmir in a Quandary. The strategic importance of Kashmir, due to its location between India, Pakistan, and China, further complicates the issue. Both India and Pakistan view control over Kashmir as vital to their national security and identity. In recent years, the situation in Kashmir has deteriorated further.

The international community had remained oblivious to complete shut-down and curfews in Illegally Indian Occupied Jammu & Kashmir (IIOJK) since August 2019 i.e. ever since extremist BJP government in India deprived Kashmir of its special constitutional status and its subjects of special rights by revoking articles 35A and 370 of Indian constitution. Indian incumbent far right BJP Government being a political face of extremist organisation called RSS has consistently worked for decades to achieve its goal of making Greater India. India felt emboldened with the grant of status as a new American strategic ally in Asia-Pacific (QUAD) primarily to contest and contain China, has been moving on fast track to change demography of occupied Kashmir valley by establishing Sainik/ military colonies, industrial zones for Indian investors, and most nefariously introduction of Kashmir’s domicile to Hindus from all over India. It is assessed that Modi and his team may ultimately stage manage a plebiscites in occupied Jammu and Kashmir to settle Kashmir issue on the UN Security Council agenda. By and large, the world powers remain once again unconcerned due to preference for trade  and greater economic interests over high morals. Ironically, Israel is also supporting India in occupied Kashmir akin to shaming its own history with most brutal genocide of Palestinian Muslims in Gaza.

The Kashmir conflict, being one of the most complex and enduring territorial, ideological, moral and political disputes in modern history; and continues to shape the geopolitical landscape of South Asia. As stated earlier, at the heart of this over seven-decade-long issue is a broken promise: the unimplemented plebiscite that was meant to allow the people of Jammu and Kashmir to decide their future. Be that as it may, the forums and charters of SCO as well as BRICS+ blocks may help India and Pakistan to take a leaf of wisdom to give primacy to mutual economic interests, that shall ultimately pave the way for resolution of lingering Kashmir, Indus Water Treaty and other territorial disputes. Following the example of recent India-China cooling -off efforts, Pakistan and India may find it mutually beneficial to revisit the “Agra Summit( 2021)” and the “ Chenab  Formula” to explore greater economic dividends.  Indian haughty posture notwithstanding, the sincere  experts working on Kashmir issue on both sides of the borders may like to use Chinese wisdom in exploring a fresh and visionary way forward to find an amicable and peaceful resolution of the greatest flash point in South Asia.

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