Russian President Vladimir Putin hosted the first-ever summit of BRICS+ from October 22 to 24, 2024 in the Tatarstan city of Kazan. The founding members of BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa) formally welcomed five new members i.e., Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates (UAE); indicating emphasis on the energy security and related geo-economic interests of the block’s founding members. Understandably, BRICS expanded its membership and strengthened its goals for economic cooperation and global influence. Nevertheless, despite its geo-strategic importance, ignoring Pakistan from grant of the membership was noticeable. Pakistan’s economic fragility, political instability, distressed security situation, American influence over Pakistan, and unresolved disputes with India could have been the contributing factors for showing a wall to Pakistan for inclusion in the BRICS+ block. However, the most recent Russian outreach by sending higher civil and military delegations to Pakistan is considered a positive development in the right direction for finding a long awaited balance in the foreign policy.
On the other hand, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Chinese President Xi Jinping had a very significant bilateral meeting on October 23, which Indian media projected as a rapprochement at BRICS. Reportedly, both leaders signalled a breakthrough in the long-drawn out and enmeshed negotiations on ensuring peace on the troubled 3,000 km border between the two countries. India’s Defence Minister, Rajnath Singh, said that the two countries have reached a broad consensus to restore the ground situation based on principles of equal and mutual security. In 2020, in Galwan Valley, 20 Indian and four Chinese soldiers were killed in a clash which led to a marked deterioration in Sino-Indian relations. India banned many Chinese consumer products including Tik Tok. However, a combination of diverse factors such as India’s growing disillusionment with the West, its need for Chinese investments and China’s opening its doors to Indian business tycoons may have accounted for the change. India’s relations with the Western bloc, particularly US and Canada, had hit stumbling blocks. India did not back the West’s case against the Russian attack on Ukraine. India and the US are at odds over foreign policy with India not wanting to go against Russia or confront China as per US expectations. Resultantly, India is revalidating its relations with Russia and is making advances to China, of course to the American dismay, who had declared India a “strategic partner”. Following her strategic economic interest, India continued to buy crude oil from sanctioned Russia at a concessional rate, refined it, and made money by selling it to energy-starved Western Europe.
Overall, the economic compulsions and geopolitical developments seem to have been hyphenated to shape events in favour of cooling-off moment between India and China. India’s need to develop its industry is pushing it to have closer ties with China and shedding some of its security related fears. India’s cardinal industries are heavily dependent on Chinese intermediaries. India depends on China for the supply of a wide range of products, from the unsophisticated nails/tacks and umbrellas to sophisticated telecom and electronic products, and pharmaceutical intermediates. In 2019–20, more than 83% of India’s imports of mobile phones and nearly 90% of colour TV sets imported into the country were from China. The Indian motorcycle, auto-mobile, solar energy panels/cells and textiles and garments industries are greatly dependent on imports from China. As of 2022-23, China was India's third-largest trading partner. Bilateral trade between India and China stood at US$ 136.26 billion in the year 2022.
Despite being two greatest strategic opponents on the globe, the U.S. trade with China has grown from $4 billion in 1979 to over $750 billion in 2022. Amid the growing economic connections between Moscow and Beijing, the annual value of bilateral trade has reached $240 billion. Whereas, in 2022, Pakistan exported a total of $ 38.6 billion, making it the number 66 exporter in the world. Over the past 5 years, imports from China to Pakistan have increased at an annualized rate of 3.51%, from $17.7 billion in 2017 to $ 21 billion in 2022. On the contrary, in 2022, Pakistan’s export to China stood at only $ 2.79 billion(copper, cotton & rice).
The above trade volume despite security and political disputes between China and India and China and USA should act as a beacon light for the policy makers in Pakistan. It goes without saying that economic interests of any country should be the foundation on which all state policies need to be built firmly. A free and fair system of justice, respect for the constitution and the people’s mandate ensures due political stability that remains a bedrock for economic progress and stable security situation in the country. Any missing ingredient in the said recipe is bound to spoil the broth; and that is the reason as to why successive governments in Pakistan have not been able to fully ensure the achievement of ultimate National Interest i.e., “Security and Well-being of its people”. The SCO and BRICS+ blocks provide opportunities for a country like Pakistan to re-prioritise and reshape its bilateral as well as multilateral relations, restore politico-economic stability and pursue national interests in the true sense rather than running after embarrassing short term relief by begging and borrowing.
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