Why More Provinces? (Part-1)

The ongoing speculative and confusing discussions on the need to have ‘more provinces’ later altered as ‘or more administrative units’ triggered after worthy Interior Minister made a speech confessing ‘System Collapse’; besides, describing ‘manifold increased population’ as the main problem and the need to improve ‘System’ by further division of the State of Pakistan into more provinces. Ostensibly, the statement was made as a tester to gauge public opinion as well as the controversial Form 47 ruling club’s response. As planned, the said speech and remarks created panic, confusion, jubilation and a range of other feelings expressed by different stakeholders as per their hopes, aspirations and fears. Besides, so far it has served as a partial distraction from unaffordable energy prices, crippling inflation, political victimisation and tricky ‘Walk on a tight rope” on the external front.

One needs to analyse the ongoing rudderless statements and discussions about the need to create more provinces in Pakistan keeping in mind some international and domestic cases. For example, dissolution of Ottomans Khalafat/Empire into a large number of countries, division of Sudan, Indonesia, Malaysia; and internally, tragedy of Pakistan resulting in turning East Pakistan into Bangladesh, One Unit formulae, LFO, late 1960s deliberations on more provinces and administrative units in Pakistan like what was done in Spain and General Musharraf’s Devolution of Power through Local Bodies. And above all, the present state of law and order, terrorism mixed with insurgency and proxy wars, poor economy, people’s miseries due to maladministration and missing timely justice, crippling inflation and public disorientation.

​ Global reorganizations demonstrate two distinct phenomena: state fragmentation driven by central collapse versus administrative sub-division within stable borders. Planned and successfully executed by the Big Powers in pursuance of their strategic interests, a few examples are cited here to clear the mist. The Ottoman Khilafat/ Empire’s collapse after WW-I was an external balkanization driven by imperial decay, foreign intervention (Sykes-Picot),and ethno-religious nationalism. It illustrates how central suppression of regional identities leads to violent breakup rather than peaceful internal reform. ​Malaysia & Singapore (1965) Separation was a mutual expulsion triggered by irreconcilable political and ethnic differences (Malay supremacy vs. Chinese economic dominance) between Singapore's Lee Kuan Yew and Kuala Lumpur's central leadership. As for Sudan (2011), South Sudan’s secession followed decades of civil war driven by religious, racial, and resource neglect by the Arabized North. Decentralization came too late, making secession the only viable end to the conflict. Another example is that of Indonesia (Post-1998 Pemekaran); following the secession of East Timor, Indonesia (comprising a large number of Islands) launched massive administrative decentralization (Pemekaran), expanding its provinces from 26 to 38. This internal restructuring successfully neutralized separatist movements in places like Papua and Aceh by redistributing central revenues down to regional elites.

Now let’s briefly look at the Historical Trajectory of Administrative Formations in Pakistan. Pakistan's internal boundary conflicts stem from attempts to engineer administrative maps for political leverage; i.e. in 1955: ‘One Unit Scheme’ merged West Pakistan into 1 province to offset East Bengal's majority(with more than 60 districts). Again in 1970, ‘LFO & Dissolution’ by Gen. Yahya restored 4 provinces; East Bengal won majority in 1970 elections resulted in 1971 Dismemberment of Pakistan due to a host of reasons; and Post-1970s Frozen Boundaries have kept status quo despite population growth and peripheral neglect. The detailed study would reveal the pros and cons as well as reasons for non-realisation of such lofty but knee jerk initiatives.

The ongoing slowly revealed parameter for Creating New Constitutional Provinces (e.g., South Punjab, Hazara, Karachi) and Empowering Divisions/Districts within Existing 4 Provinces are purportedly meant to create Federal Balance, Balanced National Assembly and Senate seats; break Punjab's single-handed political hegemony, while it preserves existing constitutional balance and avoids political deadlocks in Parliament. Better Governance & Delivery is expected to bring provincial capitals closer to peripheral populations (e.g., South Punjab, Southern Balochistan) and decentralize service delivery without creating redundant bureaucratic capitals. On the financial side, Cost & Overhead High include setting up new provincial assemblies, secretariats, high courts, and governorship, while the speculated financial Low looks at utilizing existing civil service structures and local government legislation. As for Pros and Cons of creating New Provinces, the Pros may offer Administrative Efficiency i.e. Regions like South Punjab (Multan/Bahawalpur) or peripheral Balochistan face immense delays because capital cities (Lahore/Quetta) are hundreds of kilometers away. New provinces would automatically receive dedicated shares from the National Finance Commission (NFC) award, bypassing provincial capital hoarding. Smaller provinces eliminate the dominant status of any single unit, forcing coalition-building at the center. Obviously, the ruling two parties in Punjab and Sindh will have serious reservations due to the risk of losing monopoly in politics. On the dangerous flip side, redrawing boundaries along linguistic lines (e.g., Seraiki, Hazara, Muhajir) risks deepening ethnic fault lines and triggering violence in multi-ethnic hubs like Karachi​, further promoting Ethno-Linguistic Polarization. Article 239 requires a two-thirds majority in both houses of Parliament and the affected provincial assembly, making consensus politically difficult that may cause Constitutional Deadlock. Establishing administrative infrastructure for 4 to 8 new provinces would divert funds away from basic social services. To be continued…